The last time Portland came to Los Angeles, the Blazers shot 41 free throws and won by seven. Twelve came from four fouls on three-point shots. Damian Lillard drew three of the four himself, from three different Lakers, and Vit Krejci, who played seven minutes and is now out with an ankle injury, drew the fourth.
Ja Morant scored 23 in that 136-129 game on Oct. 27, and he won’t be on the floor Friday night. He strained his left hamstring against Memphis on Oct. 29, and NBA.com reported that imaging showed a grade two strain and that he would be re-evaluated in four weeks. My take for the rematch: Morant’s absence takes away one of Portland’s two top scorers from that night, but it doesn’t touch the thing that beat the Lakers. Portland gets to the free-throw line, and Deni Avdija and Lillard take most of those trips. The Lakers should put their cleanest defenders on Avdija and stop fouling Lillard’s jumpers.
The 41 Free Throws
Here is how the first game went at the line, per ESPN’s box score. Portland went 26-for-41. The Lakers went 22-for-30. The Lakers were called for 29 personal fouls, with Austin Reaves at five and Walker Kessler and Jake LaRavia at four each. Portland outscored the Lakers by four at the line in a game it won by seven.
The play-by-play is worse. Luka Doncic fouled Lillard on a three late in the second quarter. Reaves did it early in the third. LaRavia did it with 4:58 left in the third, then fouled Krejci on another three 53 seconds later. That’s a dozen free throws handed out to shooters who were taking the hardest shot on the floor.
The Lakers got a little lucky, too. The Associated Press noted that Lillard “uncharacteristically” missed four free throws, and he finished 7-for-11. Portland left 15 points at the line and still scored 136.
Portland Didn’t Slow Down Without Morant
Portland has gone 3-0 since Morant got hurt, beating Utah 112-90, Denver 118-110 and Phoenix 132-119, all on the road. Scoot Henderson took Morant’s spot in the starting lineup in all three. The Blazers are 6-1, and 5-0 on the road, per ESPN’s standings.
The free throws didn’t slow down either. Portland shot 41 at Utah, 21 at Denver and 41 again at Phoenix on Wednesday, per ESPN’s box scores. That’s three 41-attempt nights in seven games and 218 attempts overall, about 31 a game. For comparison, Lakers opponents have shot 252 free throws in nine games, or 28 a game.
So Portland didn’t lose its route to the line when Morant went down. He went 4-for-4 at the line against the Lakers. Avdija has taken 66 of Portland’s 218 free throws and Lillard 46, per ESPN’s box scores. Nobody else on the roster has more than 20.
Avdija Is the Problem
Avdija averaged 24.2 points and 9.2 free-throw attempts a game last season, per his Basketball Reference page. Among players who appeared in at least 40 games, only Doncic averaged more free-throw attempts, at 10.1. This season he’s at 23.4 points and 9.4 attempts through seven games.
Without Morant, Avdija has scored 24, 28 and 21. In the first half at Utah he went 10-for-11 at the line, per the AP. At Phoenix he had 12 assists and went 6-for-9 at the line.
Against the Lakers he did his damage a different way: 23 points, 8-for-15 shooting, 4-for-7 from three and nine assists, with only seven free-throw attempts. That’s below his average, and only Phoenix, in the season opener, held him to fewer. Two of the seven came on a late take foul by Reaves with the game nearly over. The rest: LaRavia sent him to the line in the first quarter, Kevon Looney gave him an and-one in the second, and Reaves fouled him early in the fourth.
He’s also making only 66.7% of his free throws this season, against 80.2% last season. I’d bet on last season’s number.
Who Should Guard Him
Adding up the personal fouls and minutes from ESPN’s box scores over nine games, LaRavia has 28 fouls in 187 minutes. That’s about 5.4 per 36 minutes. Collin Sexton is at 21 in 138 minutes, about 5.5 per 36. Ziaire Williams is at 19 in 152, about 4.5.
Matisse Thybulle is at 19 fouls in 218 minutes, about 3.1 per 36. Reaves is at 2.9. Doncic is at 2.5.
I like what LaRavia has done this season, and I wrote before it started that his three-point shot is a quiet swing factor. Defensively, he’s fouling more than five times per 36 minutes, and he’s the one who sent Lillard and Krejci to the line on threes in the first game. On Friday I want Thybulle starting on Avdija, with Quentin Grimes (16 fouls in 235 minutes, about 2.5 per 36) taking him when Thybulle sits, and LaRavia on Toumani Camara or Henderson instead. I argued in October that Thybulle is the Lakers’ wing stopper if he stays healthy. This is the kind of assignment he’s on the roster for: a big, physical scorer who wants contact and gets it.
The rule for everyone else is simpler. Lillard is a career 37.1% three-point shooter and an 89.8% free-throw shooter, per Basketball Reference. At those rates, a Lillard three is worth about 1.1 points. Three Lillard free throws are worth about 2.7. Contest with a hand up, don’t jump into him, and let him shoot over it.
The Kessler Problem Is Real Too
Walker Kessler fouled out in Sacramento on Wednesday. All six of his fouls were shooting fouls, four of them in the fourth quarter, the last with 1:26 left, per ESPN’s play-by-play. Kessler had four fouls in the first Portland game, and Donovan Clingan, who had 24 points on 9-for-12 shooting at Phoenix and 18 rebounds at Denver, will go right at him.
Kessler can let Clingan score a few at the rim. The Lakers need him on the floor in the fourth quarter. The Lakers were outscored by 14 in the minutes Doncic sat in the first game, and I wrote then that Redick has to fix the minutes Doncic sits. Losing Kessler to fouls makes those minutes harder.
What I’m Watching
The game tips at 7 p.m. Pacific at Crypto.com Arena. The Lakers are 7-2 and 4-1 at home, and Portland owns the one home loss. Doncic is coming off his third straight 40-point game, a run that has put him at 308 points in eight games. He’ll get his. In the first meeting he had 41 and the Lakers still lost.
In our preview of the first game I said the Lakers should make Lillard and Morant guard Reaves. With Morant out, Henderson takes that job now. I’d still go at the small guards on offense.
The number I’ll be watching is Portland’s free-throw attempts. The Blazers are 3-0 this season when they shoot 41. If it’s 41 again, Morant being out won’t matter.