Analysis

Matisse Thybulle Is the Lakers' Wing Stopper, If He Stays Healthy

Thybulle's steal rate last season was two and a half times Marcus Smart's, and he made 41.1% of his threes over the past two seasons. He also played only 45 games in those two years.

Matisse Thybulle, in a gold Lakers jersey and white arm sleeves, speaks into a microphone at a press conference table.
Thybulle at Lakers media day.Photo: Gary A. Vasquez-Imagn Images

Marcus Smart left the Lakers this summer, and the plan to replace his perimeter defense is a 29-year-old who has played 45 games in two seasons. I like the plan. Matisse Thybulle should be a 20-minute rotation player for the Lakers, because the numbers say he takes the ball away far more often than Smart did and shot better last season, and the only thing standing in the way is his body.

The Lakers signed him to a one-year, $3.3 million deal in July, per ESPN’s Shams Charania.

The steal rate is absurd

Thybulle played 480 minutes for Portland last season over 30 games, per Basketball Reference. In those minutes he had 60 steals and 16 blocks. His steal percentage was 6.0, the share of opponent possessions that ended with him taking the ball while he was on the floor. Smart’s, in 1,769 minutes for the Lakers, was 2.4.

That is two and a half times Smart’s rate, from a player who made 0 starts in 30 games. ESPN Research agrees: he led the NBA in steals and deflections per 36 minutes last season among players with at least 20 games. Per 36 minutes, he averaged 4.5 steals by my math from his Basketball Reference totals.

The rate is not new. In 2023-24, when he played 1,487 minutes in 65 games, he had 113 steals, or about 2.7 per 36. Last season was a smaller sample at a higher rate.

JJ Redick said, per Ryan Ward’s Oct. 1 report, that “Matisse is such a unique player,” and also said: “if he’s in the passing lane, you shouldn’t pass the ball over there because he’s probably going to steal it.”

He shoots better than the Lakers’ other perimeter options

Defensive specialists usually get pushed off the floor because teams can leave them open. Thybulle’s three-point numbers make that harder.

He made 37 of 93 threes last season (39.8%) and 21 of 48 the season before (43.8%), per Basketball Reference. Over the last two seasons that is 58 of 141, or 41.1%. Compare that with the other wings the Lakers are counting on, using each player’s 2025-26 numbers from Basketball Reference:

Player 3P% 3PA per game
Matisse Thybulle (POR) .398 3.1
Austin Reaves .360 6.4
Ziaire Williams (BKN) .343 4.5
Quentin Grimes (PHI) .334 5.1
Jake LaRavia .321 3.0

Thybulle is the best shooter on that list. He took 3.1 threes a game in 16 minutes. The sample is small, 93 attempts, and Reaves’s 6.4 a game on 34.5 minutes is the number to trust more. But a defender who makes teams pay for helping off him is not a defender they can ignore.

This is the same argument I made in the piece on how the Lakers replaced LeBron’s shooting but not his passing. Luka Doncic’s teammates need to be threats, and a 39.8% shooter is one.

What the preseason showed

Thybulle played three of the Lakers’ first four preseason games, per the ESPN box scores, and started two of them (Oct. 5 and Oct. 13). He sat out the Oct. 6 game at Golden State, listed as a coach’s decision. Over 60 minutes he had:

Date Opponent Min Pts FG 3P Stl +/-
Oct. 5 at Sacramento (W 127-103) 18 6 2-6 2-4 2 +3
Oct. 8 Sacramento (W 114-110) 21 3 1-4 1-4 1 +5
Oct. 13 Golden State (L 89-101) 21 4 2-7 0-4 1 +8
Total 60 13 5-17 3-12 4 +16

The shooting was bad, 3 of 12 from three. Twelve attempts prove little, and last season’s 41.1% over two years is the better guide. The rest is more encouraging: no turnovers in 60 minutes, four steals, and he was a plus in all three games. The Lakers lost the Oct. 13 game to Golden State by 12 and were still eight points better with him on the floor, per the box score.

The minutes are the point: 18, 21 and 21, about what I would hand him in the regular season.

Why this matters for Walker Kessler

Thybulle said Walker Kessler’s rim protection lets him play more aggressively, so he can “fully live up to my defensive potential.” A gambling wing needs a big behind him who erases mistakes. Kessler blocked 2.4 shots a game in 2024-25 in Utah, per Basketball Reference, as I wrote in the Kessler piece. A steal-hungry wing in front of him is a good pairing.

The Lakers’ turnover problem is the other half of this, and I wrote about it in the Reaves and Doncic turnover piece. A team that gives the ball away is better off with a player who takes it back.

The catch is the calendar

Thybulle played 65 games in 2023-24. He played 15 in 2024-25 and 30 last season, 45 over two years, per Basketball Reference. Thybulle said a plan from the coaching and training staff has helped him stay available, “just having the plan around what’s needed for my return to play.”

That is the entire risk, and it is why the contract is one year at $3.3 million. If he plays 60 games, the Lakers will have bought a rotation wing for a minimum price. If he plays 30, they will have a good 30 games and a hole where their best wing defender should be.

What I would watch

  • His minutes in the first 10 games. If Redick plays him 20 or more, the coach believes the defense and the shooting. If he is a 12-minute player, he is a situational stopper.
  • His three-point percentage after 50 attempts. He has shot 41.1% over two seasons and 34.9% over his career, per Basketball Reference. If he looks like the career number, teams can leave him open.
  • Games played by Dec. 31. He played 30 last season. Every game he misses is a game the Lakers play without their best steal-maker.

Thybulle can play Oct. 21 against Golden State if he is healthy. I would put him in the rotation and let the steals sort out the rest.

Founder & Editor

A.D. Lane runs Late Night Lake Show. Lane writes about the Lakers' rotation, the cap sheet and whatever JJ Redick tried in the fourth quarter last night, and has strong opinions about Luka Doncic's shot diet. Most nights end with a replay of a game that already finished.