The Lakers have given up more points each game than the game before: 105 to Golden State, 117 to the Clippers, 123 in Utah and 136 to Portland on Tuesday, per ESPN’s box scores. JJ Redick didn’t dress it up afterward. “We just got broken down a lot,” he said after the 136-129 loss, adding that the team’s game-plan and personnel discipline weren’t where they need to be.
My take: the Clippers are about to make the Lakers’ defense look better than it is. They have turned the ball over 70 times in three games, per ESPN, and they gave the Lakers 26 of those on Friday. If the steals come again Wednesday night at Intuit Dome, enjoy them. Then judge the defense on the possessions where the Clippers keep the ball, because that is where the Lakers have been losing ground all week.
The Trend Is Worse Than the Scores
Raw points flatter or punish a defense depending on pace, so I ran the four games through the standard possession estimate (field-goal attempts, minus offensive rebounds, plus turnovers, plus 0.44 times free-throw attempts), using ESPN’s team totals. These are my numbers, rounded, for the Lakers’ opponents:
| Opponent | Points | Turnovers | Points per 100 possessions | Per 100 when they didn’t turn it over |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Warriors, Oct. 21 | 105 | 16 | 100 | 118 |
| Clippers, Oct. 23 | 117 | 26 | 107 | 141 |
| at Jazz, Oct. 25 | 123 | 17 | 118 | 142 |
| Blazers, Oct. 27 | 136 | 14 | 132 | 153 |
Read the last column first. Golden State missed 28 of its 36 threes in the Lakers’ opener, per ESPN, which is why its 118 is the low mark. Since then, the three opponents have all scored above 140 per 100 on the trips where they held onto the ball and got a shot up.
The Clippers game is the one I keep coming back to. The Lakers won it by eight, Walker Kessler blocked six shots, and the turnovers were the story of that night for both teams. But the Clippers made 16 of their 37 threes, and Brook Lopez went 8-for-9 for 22 points in 20 minutes off the bench, per ESPN. The Lakers scored 33 points off Clippers turnovers, per ESPN’s team stats. Take those giveaways away and the Clippers played offense on Friday about as well as Utah did on Sunday.
The steals have been drying up, too. The Lakers had 11 against Golden State and 13 against the Clippers, then 9 in Utah and 6 on Tuesday. Portland committed 14 turnovers, the fewest of any Lakers opponent so far, and the defense had nothing underneath to stand on.
Portland Showed Where It Breaks
Kessler gave the most useful description of what went wrong. “Guys were getting downhill and shooting floaters,” he said after the game. “We were breaking down and giving up corner threes and threes in transition.” He put some of it on himself: “I pride myself on being the leader on defense, and I didn’t perform tonight.”
The box score backs him up. Portland shot 46-for-78 from the floor and 18-for-36 from three, scored 56 points in the paint and went to the free-throw line 41 times, per ESPN. The Lakers were called for 29 fouls. The Associated Press noted that Portland missed only 10 shots in the entire first half.
Some of that was shot-making, and Redick said so. “It was also an incredible shot-making game,” he said. “I factor that in, too.” Fine. But the paint number isn’t new. Golden State scored 56 in the paint, the Clippers 48 and Utah 58, per ESPN. Four games, four opponents at 48 or more. The Lakers have a shot-blocking center, and opponents are still getting into the paint far too often.
That lines up with what I worried about after the first Clippers game, when I wrote that Kessler gives the Lakers permission to pressure the ball only if the next defender is ready to help. Early on, the pressure produced steals. Lately it produces drives. Kessler’s own list from Tuesday, drivers getting downhill and open corner threes, is what a defense looks like when the first defender gets beaten and the help behind him is late.
What I Want From the Rematch
This is the second night of a back-to-back for the Lakers. The Clippers haven’t played since Sunday’s loss in Oklahoma City. The Associated Press preview lists the Clippers without Bradley Beal, Brandon Ingram, Rui Hachimura, Max Strus, Jordan Miller and Yanic Konan Niederhauser. A short-handed team that turns it over 23 times a night, on average, is exactly the opponent that can cover up a leaky defense for 48 minutes.
So here is what I’ll be watching instead of the steal column.
Darius Garland’s drives. Garland scored 26 on Friday and also turned it over nine times, per ESPN. The scoring and the giveaways come from the same aggressive player. If the Lakers are swiping at him every time he turns the corner, they’ll get a few of those nine back and give up layups and kick-outs on the rest. I’d rather the on-ball defender stay in front and make him pass than gamble for the ball. Garland has turned it over 18 times in three games, per ESPN, so he will give some of them away without anyone reaching.
Brook Lopez. He went 8-for-9 on Friday, including 2-for-2 from three. A backup center who can shoot from deep is a coverage problem. Kessler can’t live at the rim and also chase Lopez to the arc, so whoever is guarding the ball has to fight over screens and let Kessler stay home longer.
The free-throw line. Twenty-nine fouls is the number that bothers me most from Tuesday, and I don’t expect tired legs on a back-to-back to cut down on the reaching. The Clippers attempted 25 free throws on Friday. If they get near 35, the Lakers are defending with their hands again.
The bench stretch. We already went through how the Lakers lost the minutes Luka Doncic sat, and Kevon Looney is minus-29 in 30 minutes this season by ESPN’s box scores. Those rest minutes are where the Lakers have bled the most, so that is where Redick’s discipline message gets tested first.
A Good Result Can Still Be a Bad Sign
Redick’s other line after Tuesday is the one I’d tape to the locker: “If we score 129 points at home, we should be able to get enough stops to win.” He’s right. The Lakers have scored at least 125 in all four games, per ESPN. The defense is the part of this team that decides whether 3-1 turns into something real.
The Lakers could win by 15 on Wednesday and still have the same problem. If the Clippers commit another 26 turnovers and the Lakers score off most of them, the final will look great and tell us nothing. The number I care about is the Clippers’ scoring on the possessions where they get a shot. Hold them somewhere near the Golden State game, about 118 per 100 by my count, and Redick’s message landed. Let them score in the 140s again, and no amount of steals will fix what Portland exposed.